In 2024, 126.2 billion soft drinks sold in the US were packaged in plastic bottles, and 60.5 billion were packaged in metal cans, according to GlobalData’s Primary Packaging and Outers database. These numbers are 60.0% and 28.8% of the US soft drinks market, respectively. The US tariffs could restrict the growth of rigid metal cans and promote the growth of rigid plastic bottles. This in turn could have knock-on effects for the machinery in the production of these packaging types.
EU processing machinery manufacturers will be hurt by US tariffs
Many of the largest manufacturers of packaging and food processing machinery are European. Krones, GEA, and Syntegon are all German companies, while Sacmi, Coesia, IMA, and PFM Group are all Italian companies. This strong ecosystem enabled the EU to export $3.4 billion worth of washing and bottling machines, $1.6 billion worth of industrial food preparation machinery, and $1.1 billion worth of industrial printers to the US in 2023, according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity. Germany alone accounted for 24% of the US’ industrial food preparation machinery imports in 2023, according to the same source. A 20% tariff on these EU exports to the US represents a serious problem for EU machinery manufacturers.
Gopsill continues: “Other elements of the US’ current policy agenda could also create disruptions in the US packaging and food processing machinery market. The Trump administration is also pursuing a budget reconciliation bill aimed at securing between $90 billion and $175 billion in additional funding for immigration and border enforcement agencies before the end of the year. This funding would enhance the government's capacity to conduct business raids and detain and deport undocumented immigrants.
“Such actions could lead to labor shortages in various industries that heavily depend on packaging and food processing machinery. For instance, according to the American Immigration Council, approximately 23% of the workforce in the US meatpacking industry consists of undocumented immigrants, while this figure was around 62% in the seafood processing sector in 2017 (according to the New American Economy). Furthermore, according to the American Immigration Council, about 5.5% of employees in transportation and warehousing are also undocumented immigrants.
Gopsill concludes: “If a crackdown on immigrant labor creates workforce vacancies that companies are unable to fill, food processing and packaging machinery companies may be required to accelerate their innovation programs to supply the market with more automated packaging solutions.”
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