Estimation

CONAI: The packaging recycling rate is set to reach around 75% by 2026

2026-03-30 2:34 min Sustainability & Circular Economy, Europe

CONAIMilano, Italy

To mark World Recycling Day, initial estimates have been released which suggest that recycling volumes have remained unchanged since 2024. However, the current geopolitical uncertainty could negatively impact the sector. President Ignazio Capuano said, “We need industrial policies that promote the use of locally sourced recycled materials. We can no longer afford environmentally damaging short-term low-cost imports: they threaten the recycling sector, which is crucial for European manufacturing. We also need to restore confidence in businesses by establishing clear rules.”

The packaging recycling rate in Italy is expected to reach around 75% for the current year, amounting to nearly 11 million tonnes. This represents a slight decline compared to the latest consolidated figure of 76.7% (2024), reflecting the current difficulties facing the national recycling sector in certain supply chains. Despite this, there has been a steady increase in the volume of separate collections, which exceeds the volume of packaging placed on the market. This is estimated to exceed 14 million tonnes in 2026.

These are CONAI's initial estimates for 2026, compiled to mark World Recycling Day on 18 March.

'These estimates call for great caution this year,' says CONAI President Ignazio Capuano. 'The trends we are seeing in recycling rates are influenced by contextual and statistical factors. Added to this are specific market dynamics, which are also affecting individual supply chains.'

In the case of paper, the situation is characterised by a decline in domestic demand, coupled with an increase in exports. Another factor that requires closer monitoring is the rise in contaminants within collection streams, to ensure that they are of a quality suitable for recycling.

Particular attention is being paid to trends in the recycling of traditional plastics. The slowdown in recent months, partly due to growing quantities of sorted packaging waste not being collected from the market, risks affecting the accounting of actual recycling flows.

‘We are going through a critical phase regarding plastics,’ explains President Capuano. ‘This will also impact operating costs, which are rising due to a lack of outlets for recycled material and higher recycling costs. However, globalisation is presenting the entire Italian recycling industry with new challenges. We are importing more and more finished products, not just raw materials, from non-European countries at lower costs. This puts our companies at a significant disadvantage. This is not least because energy costs in Italy are currently the highest in Europe and recycling is an energy-intensive sector.”

Against this backdrop of uncertainty, partly linked to the geopolitical situation, it is forecast that local authorities will entrust an increasing amount of end-of-life packaging to the CONAI system and sector-specific consortia in the year that has just begun: more than 5.5 million tonnes, up from 4.74 million tonnes in 2024 (the latest consolidated figure).

In such a complex context, the importance of the subsidiarity of the CONAI system should become apparent by 2026, just as it did during previous national economic crises. “The CONAI system increases its management scope precisely when the market withdraws due to the loss of recyclable materials' profitability,” Capuano comments, “and leaves room for the market when recycling once again becomes economically viable.”

The country’s performance in 2026 will be significantly impacted by developments in the international landscape over the coming months.

“There is an ever-increasing need for industrial policies that promote the use of locally sourced recycled materials,” Capuano continues. ‘We cannot afford to undermine the benefits of recycling by importing from outside Europe. Shipments from the Far East are not environmentally neutral. It is essential to recognise, including in economic terms, the environmental value of recycling carried out within our own territories, in order to ensure that companies are not exposed to the risk of environmental and economic speculation.”

In fact, the Italian business community is even beginning to invest less in eco-design and sustainability now. 'This is a consequence of the uncertainties surrounding the new European Packaging Regulation, as well as the divergent approaches taken by world powers at this juncture,' concludes Capuano. 'Clearer rules are needed to strengthen industrial planning and business confidence. It is also necessary to ensure that finance is simpler and more accessible for small and medium-sized enterprises.'

CONAI is a private non-profit consortium in Italy, the measure by which packaging producers and users ensure that they achieve the recycling and recovery target of packaging waste provided for by law.

www.conai.org

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